The world’s largest agricultural producer Brazil has been anxiously monitoring the effects of Russia’s war against Ukraine It is not certain what the positives of a predicted boost to Brazil’s exports of corn – will overshadow the negative impact on its imports of fertilizers.

Brazil the world’s largest exporter of agricultural goods, such as soy, chicken, beef and corn, is set to profit from the rising commodities prices, which have been driven up around the world by the war.

However, the country is also dependent heavily on imports of fertilizer and is now facing a slump in the supply from its the top fertilizer supplier Russia and its exports have been hit particularly hard because of Western sanctions.

The incursion of Ukraine by Russia on February. 24 has raised doubt over whether either of the countries which is the fourth and fifth-largest exporters of corn, respectively, for the years 2019-20, can deliver the expected deliveries this year.

This is causing prices to rise, which could be good news for Brazil as the top exporter.

The corn crop in the country was severely affected this year due to bad weather, and it was the most severe drought in more than 100 years.
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 But , the harvest could rise by 29 percent by 2021-22, according the most recent forecasts of Conab, the National Supply Company (Conab).

The price of corn has reached the highest level that have been recorded in history and is attracting Brazilian producers, which is that is causing an increase in the areas of planting” in the second crop, which is the largest of the season According to Joao Pedro Lopes, a commodity market analyst firm StoneX.

An increase in global demand and an attractive exchange rate “should enable the growth of up to 67 percent in the exports” from Brazilian corn by 2022,” Conab said.

The U.S. Agriculture Department however has forecast that should Brazil’s harvest be the size it was expected to be Brazil could surpass its neighbor Argentina to be the world’s second largest exporter of corn in the coming year, just behind America. United States.

“International market demand suddenly emerged for the immediate delivery of Brazilian corn this is unusual for the first quarter in the calendar year. Demand for the second half of the year has increased, too,” said analyst Paulo Roberto Molinari of the agribusiness consulting firm Safras e Mercado.

However, there’s a huge disadvantage.
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 “There’s no assurance regarding the most important issue of shipping goods,” with the maritime transport sector being damaged by war, according to Cesario Ramalho, the head of the Brazilian Association of Corn Producers (Abramilho). “And the availability of fertilizers is also uncertain,” he told AFP.

Belarus is another major supplier that has also backed Russia during Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine crisis, has been hit very hard with Western sanctions.

Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina told the media earlier in the month that Brazil had enough fertilizer supplies to last through October. She is in talks with major exporters to purchase additional.

Farmers are already experiencing the pain The cost of an ounce of fertilizer imported from the US has risen within Brazil in 129 percent between February 2021 until February 2022.

The Bolsonaro administration of President Jair Bolsonaro launched plans last week to cut Brazil’s dependence on fertilizers from abroad in 2050 through tax incentives as well as loans, and other measures that boost domestic production.

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